Geelong's Housing Crossroads: The Decisions That Will Shape the Next Decade

Geelong City Council has until September 2026 to finalise amendments to the Greater Geelong Planning Scheme that will determine where tens of thousands of new homes can be built, and the clock is running out. The decisions made in the next six months will set the trajectory for housing supply across the Barwon region for at least the next 15 years, locking in or locking out affordable options for families, renters and the first-home buyers who have been retreating from the market nationwide.

The timing matters because the broader Australian property market has reached an unusual inflection point. Prices are cooling in many capital cities, but Geelong remains under structural pressure: the city's population grew by roughly 12,000 residents between 2023 and 2025, driven partly by sea-changers from Melbourne and workers relocating for jobs tied to the Geelong City Deal, the federal government's $370 million regional investment program. More people, a tightening rental market and a construction industry still recovering from post-pandemic cost blowouts make this a genuinely consequential planning moment.

Where the Growth Is Landing

The two areas drawing the most scrutiny from planners right now are Armstrong Creek, south of Geelong's CBD, and the Surf Coast growth corridor stretching toward Torquay. Armstrong Creek's Urban Growth Zone has already absorbed significant residential development over the past decade, but advocacy groups including the Geelong branch of the Urban Development Institute of Australia argue that infrastructure provision, schools, public transport, local roads, has consistently lagged behind dwelling approvals. Torquay Road between Grovedale and Waurn Ponds remains a pinch point that no amount of rezoning resolves without a committed capital program from VicRoads and the state government.

Meanwhile, the Surf Coast Shire is wrestling with its own planning review, which must balance environmental overlays protecting the coastal heathland around Point Impossible and Bells Beach against state government pressure to increase housing density in established townships like Torquay and Jan Juc. The Victorian Government's Housing Statement, released in late 2023, set a target of 800,000 new homes statewide by 2034, a figure that filters down to specific local government area quotas Geelong and Surf Coast Shire cannot simply ignore.

The Deakin Factor and What Comes Next

One piece of the puzzle that rarely features in housing debates is Deakin University's Waurn Ponds campus. Deakin has flagged plans to expand student accommodation on the Pigdons Road precinct by up to 600 beds over the next four years, which would partially relieve rental pressure in the inner suburbs of Newtown and Highton, areas where a standard three-bedroom rental now regularly lists above $550 per week on Domain. That is not a substitute for council action on broader supply, but it demonstrates the kind of institutional investment that shapes where housing demand actually lands.

Council officers are expected to table a draft Housing Strategy refresh at the August ordinary meeting, with a public submission period running through to mid-September. The document will recommend either expanding the Urban Growth Boundary east toward Lara and Bannockburn, a move supported by developer lobby groups, or prioritising infill and medium-density development along established transport corridors, particularly the Geelong train line stations at South Geelong, Marshall and Waurn Ponds. The infill option aligns more closely with state policy and with the infrastructure already in the ground, but it requires councillors to approve zoning changes that have historically attracted fierce community opposition in established suburbs.

For anyone with a stake in Geelong's housing future, renters, prospective buyers, landowners, the next step is straightforward: the draft Housing Strategy will be publicly available on Council's Your Say Geelong portal from early August. Submissions close in September. The decisions made on the back of that process will be difficult to revisit once planning scheme amendments are gazetted. This is the window.