Rates, rezoning and a river precinct: The decisions shaping Geelong for the next decade

The City of Greater Geelong heads into the second half of 2026 carrying a 3.8 per cent average rate rise, a Central Geelong precinct rezoning proposal that has divided councillors, and a state government deadline on the Barwon Region Housing Statement that no one at Gheringhap Street seems entirely comfortable with. The decisions ahead are not abstract. They will determine where tens of thousands of people live, how much they pay, and whether the $640 million Geelong City Deal delivers anything resembling what was promised.

The timing matters because Victoria's housing crisis has not spared the Surf Coast or the northern growth corridors around Armstrong Creek. Median house prices in Greater Geelong held at around $680,000 through the June quarter, defying the modest national softening, while rental vacancy rates in the Barwon region sat below one per cent for the fourteenth consecutive month according to the Real Estate Institute of Victoria's June 2026 data. First home buyers are being squeezed out of suburbs like Belmont and Newcomb, and Council knows it. The question is what it actually does about it.

The Central Geelong rezoning vote

The most consequential item on the Council agenda before the October recess is the proposed rezoning of the Malop Street and Little Malop Street corridor, a strip running between the Geelong Library and Heritage Centre and the planned Riverwalk extension toward Breakwater. Officers have recommended a mixed-use uplift that would allow residential towers of up to 18 storeys, a significant departure from the current eight-storey cap. Councillors who toured comparable precincts in Bendigo and Ballarat last month returned with differing views, and a formal vote is scheduled for the August 11 ordinary meeting.

The rezoning is connected directly to the City Deal's Revitalising Central Geelong program, which has already committed $105 million to streetscape upgrades, the Geelong Convention and Events Centre expansion, and the Little Malop Street activation corridor. If the height limits don't change, developers the council has been courting, including two Melbourne-based apartment groups that submitted expressions of interest in March, have signalled they will walk. If they do change, heritage advocates are threatening a VCAT challenge over sightlines to St Mary of the Angels Basilica on Moorabool Street.

Armstrong Creek and the housing statement deadline

Parallel to the CBD debate, Council must formally respond to the state government's Barwon Region Housing Statement by September 30. The statement, released by the Department of Transport and Planning in April, calls on Greater Geelong to identify capacity for an additional 11,200 dwellings by 2036, most of them in the Armstrong Creek Urban Growth Zone and the emerging Charlemont precinct east of the Surf Coast Highway.

Infrastructure is the sticking point. The Armstrong Creek town centre off Surf Coast Highway has been under construction in some form since 2011, and a permanent aquatic and leisure facility promised under the 2022 Council Plan still lacks a confirmed funding agreement. Developer contributions collected under the Armstrong Creek Development Contributions Plan have reached approximately $47 million, but engineers estimate the outstanding trunk infrastructure, roads, drains, a second primary school site, requires at least $90 million more. Council's chief financial officer is expected to present options to close that gap at the July 28 briefing session.

Add to this a Deakin University-led advocacy push, backed by the Geelong Authority, for a new innovation precinct around the Waurn Ponds campus on Pigdons Road, and councillors are looking at a calendar that leaves almost no room for the procedural delays that typically absorb six weeks of every planning cycle. The Council elections in October 2028 are already casting a shadow; several councillors seeking re-election will be reluctant to approve anything controversial in late 2027, which means the contentious votes need to happen now or they effectively don't happen this term. Residents wanting to understand what's on the table can access Council's strategic planning portal at geelong.vic.gov.au, where the August 11 agenda papers are due to be published by July 25.