Planning Changes and Stamp Duty Drive Geelong Property Market Shifts

Geelong homebuyers are now paying an average of $34,000 in stamp duty on a median-priced property, a figure that would have seemed extraordinary in 2006, when the same purchase attracted roughly half that bill. The 20-year blowout, driven by relentlessly rising property values without any meaningful reform to Victoria's transfer duty thresholds, is reshaping who can afford to buy, where they're buying, and how long they're willing to wait to do it.

The timing matters. The City of Greater Geelong is mid-way through processing a record volume of planning applications, many of them tied to the Armstrong Creek Urban Growth Zone, which has absorbed the bulk of the region's new housing demand since 2018. Council approved 1,847 planning permits across the municipality in the 2024-25 financial year, according to its annual development activity report, but approvals alone aren't translating into dwellings fast enough to keep pace with population growth running at roughly 2.1 per cent annually.

Armstrong Creek and the Approval Backlog

Armstrong Creek remains the engine room of Geelong's housing pipeline. Developers have 6,300 lots in various stages of approval or construction across precincts including Warralily, Anchoridge, and the newer Nerri and Grovedale South corridors. However, civil construction costs have not retreated from their 2022-23 peak, and several medium-density projects, including two four-storey apartment complexes proposed for Torquay Road in Grovedale, have stalled at permit stage while developers seek revised construction tenders.

The state government's revised residential zones, which took effect in Victoria on 1 March 2026, have added another layer of complexity. The updated Neighbourhood Residential Zone rules cap development at two dwellings per lot in large swaths of Newtown, Highton, and Belmont, suburbs that many buyers regard as the region's most liveable. Geelong's planning department confirmed it had received 43 enquiries about the zone changes in the first quarter of 2026 alone, the majority from owners who had assumed their blocks were suitable for dual-occupancy.

For families trying to downsize out of large Highton homes and into something smaller but well-located, the combination of a sluggish market and tightened zoning is proving particularly brutal. Stock on market in Highton sat at just 67 active listings as of late June 2026, according to PropTrack data, roughly 30 per cent below the five-year average for this time of year. Sellers are holding out for prices that buyers, already stretched by stamp duty, are reluctant to meet.

What Buyers Should Watch Before Spring

The Geelong CBD itself tells a more optimistic story. Council's Waterfront Geelong Precinct framework, adopted in late 2025, has cleared the path for mixed-use development between Cunningham Pier and the Moorabool Street retail strip. Two sites, one on Brougham Street and one adjacent to the Geelong Library and Heritage Centre on Little Malop Street, have pre-application meetings scheduled for the third quarter of 2026. If those projects proceed, they would add an estimated 280 apartments to the inner-city pool, which currently lists fewer than 120 available units.

Victoria's land tax changes, which lowered the general threshold to $50,000 from 1 January 2026, are also filtering through. Investors holding Surf Coast holiday rentals in Torquay and Anglesea are reporting higher holding costs, and some are beginning to test the market. CoreLogic figures show Torquay's median house price softened 2.3 per cent in the 12 months to May 2026, the first annual decline since 2019.

Buyers with finance pre-approved should track the September planning committee agenda at Geelong's City Hall on Gheringhap Street, several contested Highton and Belmont applications are listed for determination, and the outcomes will signal how council interprets the new zone rules in practice. Those results, more than any interest rate movement, are likely to set the tone for Geelong's spring selling season.

This article is general information only and is not personal financial or investment advice. Consider your own circumstances and seek licensed professional advice before making financial decisions.