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Geelong will reach a population of 400,000 by 2031 under revised projections published in the Victorian Government's regional population strategy, making it the first regional city outside a capital metropolitan area in Australia to break that milestone since Wollongong in the 1980s.
The revised projection, which assumes continued but moderated migration from Melbourne and interstate and the sustained attractiveness of the Surf Coast and Bellarine Peninsula hinterland, represents a 24 per cent increase from the current estimated population of 323,000. The growth trajectory makes Greater Geelong the fastest-growing regional centre in Victoria and among the fastest in Australia.
Greater Geelong City Council chief executive Peter Bettess said the projection required the council and state government to accelerate infrastructure planning significantly, particularly in transport, schools, and health services. "We are essentially building a new suburb the size of Torquay every 18 months. The services have to keep pace," he said.
The planning implications are substantial, with the state government having identified five new residential precincts in the Geelong northern growth corridor requiring rezoning within the next two years to maintain housing supply. Land releases in Armstrong Creek, the most recently developed growth precinct, are already largely committed.
The economic forecast accompanying the population projection shows Geelong's gross regional product reaching $28 billion by 2031, nearly doubling its current level, driven by construction, professional services, health, and manufacturing in the advanced materials and clean energy sectors.
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